July 28 2018

On the New Mutants and Dark Phoenix Rumors

I treat most rumors as just that, rumors. But every once in a while something scratches at the back of my brain that tells me there is more going on than we know.

This week rumors surfaced that the delays to The New Mutants and X-Men: Dark Phoenix were about the Disney acquisition of the company more than anything else. The rumor was with the sale getting close to closing – which now seems to be all but final – Disney didn’t want these movies released.

Some sources are saying this isn’t true and who would want to waste this much money on things we’ll never see.

Well, lets analyze this for a moment. The last movie in the main line series, X-Men: Apocalypse, grossed $543.9M globally off of a budget of $178M. Using the usual Hollywood formula of budget X 2 to figure out break even, the film made a profit of $187.9M.

Analysts are saying these rumors of Disney not wanting the movies released are wrong, and who would want to throw away money like this.

The Disney purchase price for Fox is $71.3B. $188M or so profit on one film is how much Disney would spend on the coffee and danish order for the shareholder meeting.

You can have two more movies released that will muddy the brand, or you can ask Fox to sit on them and then let them rot on the vine because it means you can incorporate them into the Marvel Cinematic Universe finally. I know which call I would make.

Lets face it, Fox, at this juncture, can still do whatever they want. But, with the deal expected to close in the first half of 2019, right when these movies would be releasing, why not just call it a day and walk away?

Will we ever see either of these movies? Honestly, I don’t think we will. I think the Fox era of X-Men movies is over and we’re about to move on into the MCU version.

That being said, you know full well some version of these movies will leak at some point.

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